There are special trackers for this.

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Recently, all New Yorkers were waiting with bated breath for the appearance of a colorful atmospheric optical phenomenon. But, unfortunately, they did not wait, at the last moment the forecast changed and the northern lights were not visible. And although it is impossible to make an accurate forecast of its appearance now, there are several methods for predicting the appearance of this atmospheric optical phenomenon in some areas of the planet. What are these methods, said the publication Capture the Atlas.
Until recently, it was really difficult to check the forecast of the northern lights.
But modern technology makes it possible to predict this atmospheric optical phenomenon so accurately that you can plan trips for several weeks in advance to see this spectacular picture.
However, you must be able to read the northern lights forecast and be patient. And whatever that forecast may be, everything can change in a matter of minutes.
Northern Lights prediction is based on physics, formulas and numbers, but don’t worry. Many atmospheric phenomenon trackers make all this simple and understandable for the average person.
How to predict the northern lights
Before discussing how to predict the Northern Lights, check out the resources on when and where is the best time to see them.
There are three main metrics to track in the northern lights forecast:

Kp Index (KP-index)
Ovation Auroral
Solar Rotation

KP-index
The SP index is the most common way to predict an atmospheric optical phenomenon, and you can use it for both short- and long-term forecasting of the Northern Lights.
This indicator (known as the “planetary K-index”) is a scale for measuring geomagnetic activity, which is directly related to the visibility of the northern lights.
The KP index ranges from 0 to 9, and the higher it is, the further south you can see the northern lights.
For example, with KP-3 you will most likely see an atmospheric optical phenomenon in Iceland, but if you want to see it in England, you will need KP-5 or more.
CP is just an indicator, but in most situations:

CP 1-3: Northern Lights are usually quiet and weak. The predominant color is green, and it is most visible in the northern sky at high latitudes.
CP 4 to 6: Northern Lights active. You can see how it moves across the sky, most likely showing bright colors: yellow, pink or purple tones. Aurora coronas are possible, and the northern lights can be seen at lower latitudes, such as in England or the northern states of the United States.
CP 7 to 9: strong solar storms. The northern lights are very active. It can cover the entire sky and show rarer colors like red. Northern Lights coronas are common, and the atmospheric optical phenomenon can be seen at lower latitudes, such as California, France, and even northern Spain.

KP-5 is already considered a G1 solar storm. CP-6 is a G2 solar storm, CP-7 is G3, CP-8 is G4, and CP-9 is G5, the most ever recorded.

On the subject: Ball lightning – what is it: a myth or a deadly phenomenon

Long term forecast
It is difficult to predict the northern lights in the long term.
Coronal mass ejections, which cause most solar storms and therefore stronger auroras, are predicted 15 days in advance, but their strength and shape can change as they approach Earth.
The best way to predict aurora borealis ahead of time is to use the long-term KP index.
You can also use SpaceWeatherlive, where among other things they show the phase of the moon, and it is very easy to use.
KP-index and forecast accuracy
Always take this index with a pinch of salt because it’s not 100% accurate. This is the best aurora forecast indicator, but sometimes you can see a strong aurora with low CP and vice versa.
In addition, it takes time to update the KP forecast, and strong geomagnetic activity occurs very quickly. Sometimes a strong north can pass even before the KP index is updated.
Ovation Auroral
The Ovation Auroral Forecast is a model that provides a short-term prediction of the Northern Lights.
This model displays an atmospheric optical forecast map around an oval aurora zone, so if you are in the area of ​​the aurora borealis or about 800 km above or below, you will have a chance to see this fabulous picture.
The intensity of the aurora is shown in different colors, from green (weak/normal activity) to yellow (higher activity) and red (very strong activity).
This Northern Lights Forecast is also known as the NOAA Northern Lights Forecast as it is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
Ovation Aurora is a short-term northern lights forecast. If you go to their website and hit the play button, you’ll see an animated graphic with a forecast for today’s northern lights viewing.
Sun rotation
Another detail to consider in a long-term aurora forecast is the rotation of the Sun.
The sun rotates on its axis on a 27-day cycle, and if it “spits” a large amount of solar particles onto the Earth, then this event will most likely repeat in 27 days.
For example, August 31 and September 1 last year was CP-5. After 27 days, on September 27 and 28, the CP was 5 and after 27 days, on October 25 and 26, the CP was again 5.
You can check all this data in the archive of aurora and solar activity.
However, don’t take this as a rule. This is just another way to predict the visibility of the Northern Lights in the long term.
Forecast for today
The easiest and most understandable way to find out the long-term forecast of an atmospheric optical phenomenon and predict it for tonight is to use the application.
Most of the Aurora Forecast apps will show you everything mentioned before in a convenient and understandable way. For example, long-term PI, short-term PI and forecast depending on your location.

Some of them include additional technical data, such as the direction and speed of the solar wind, and even images of sunspots.
And an interesting feature included in the best aurora forecast apps is an alert and notification system that is triggered when a CP rises in your location.
The Best Aurora Prediction Apps
There are many great northern lights forecast apps on the market, but one of the best is My Aurora forecast. This free app includes all basic and advanced features as well as cloud forecast based on your location.
Solar activity is not the same everywhere. In addition, some Northern Lights conditions, such as the weather, change dramatically from one location to another, so it’s important to know how the scenario develops depending on where you are.
Remember: no matter how big the solar storm is, you won’t see anything if the sky is closed. In addition to using aurora forecasting tools, you need to check the weather forecast, in particular cloud cover. To do this, it is very useful to use local tools that will show you places with clear skies near you.
What awaits us in 2023
The northern lights are entirely dependent on solar activity, which follows an 11-year cycle.
During this 11-year cycle, the Sun has less activity, i.e. solar minimum, at the beginning and end of the cycle, and a period of greater activity (solar maximum) in the middle of the cycle.
There is more activity during solar maximum, which increases the possibility of observing more frequent geomagnetic storms and strong auroras at lower latitudes.
In 2023, we are approaching the solar maximum of the 25th cycle, so it is considered an auspicious year to see a truly fabulous phenomenon. However, this does not mean that you will be able to see the aurora every night; on average there will be more solar activity than other years and more solar flares causing larger manifestations on certain days.

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There are special trackers for this.

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