Farmer’s Almanac releases fresh forecast
Despite strange snowless weather last winter, there will be plenty of snow, sleet and ice this year, according to the Farmers’ Almanac. It will be the exact opposite of last year, according to Time Out, winter is coming and it will be cold.
El Niño is likely to return in the second half of 2023 and last until the winter of 2024, the almanac says. This means that low temperatures will prevail throughout the country, which will bring with them snow, snow with rain and ice. In particular, in New York, you should expect below average temperatures and many snowstorms, snow with freezing rain, especially in January and February.
The Almanac predicts a storm on the northeast coast in the second week of February and another in the first week of March.
Secret Farmers’ Almanac
Farmers’ Almanac has been publishing forecasts trusted by millions of people for more than two centuries. One of the most recognizable and valuable features of Farmers’ Almanac is its weather forecasts for the year ahead.
Almanac is known for their mysterious weather forecasting methods and they really keep their method a secret. They claim to use special mathematical and astronomical formulas that have been developed over decades. The main focus is on astronomical events such as planetary positions, lunar phases and solar eclipses and their effect on atmospheric conditions.
They also claim that their forecasting methods are based on observations of nature, intuition and experience from previous editions of the almanac. Thus, they create forecasts that cover not only weather conditions, but also the impact on agriculture and other aspects of life.
Perhaps the accuracy of such forecasts is sometimes controversial, but Farmers’ Almanac keeps its secret about the methods of forecasting, which makes it even more unique and attractive to many readers.
What is El Niño
El Niño is part of a natural climate phenomenon often referred to as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has two opposite states – El Niño and La Niña, both of which significantly change the world’s weather.
An El Niño event is usually declared when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise at least 0.5 C above the long-term average. Under normal conditions, the surface waters of the Pacific Ocean are colder in the east and warmer in the west.
The trade winds generally blow from east to west, and the heat of the sun gradually warms the waters as they move in that direction. During El Niño events, these winds weaken or change direction, sending warm surface water to the east.
Why do these climate models matter?
Extreme weather events caused by El Niño and La Niña affect infrastructure, food and energy systems around the world. For example, when less cold water comes to the surface during El Niño off the west coast of South America, fewer nutrients rise from the ocean floor.
Droughts and floods caused by the extreme El Niño event in 2015-16 affected the food security of more than 60 million people, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. A recent study has shown that El Niño events significantly reduce the growth rate of the global economy, and this effect may increase in the future.
American scientists have confirmed that El Niño has begun. According to experts, this phenomenon could make 2024 the hottest year in the world. They fear that this will help cross the key warming milestone of 1.5 C.
It will also have an impact on the world’s weather, which could lead to drought in Australia, more rain in the southern US and weakening of the monsoon in India. This phenomenon is likely to last until the spring of next year, after which, as experts hope, its effects will weaken.
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